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As the global car fleet finally frees itself from its dependence on the combustion engine - which has lasted for more than 100 years - the entire automotive industry is about to go through a far-reaching structural change. Demand for cars has simoultaneously collapsed in all important auto markets worldwide. This situation is unparalleled in history because the massive fall in sales coincides with the “reinvention of the automobile”. The result will be a transition of unprecedented size and scope.

The cars we will be driving in the not-too-distant future - which are being developed at this moment - will differ decisively from today’s. Shifting from mechanically driven vehicles to electrically driven ones takes more than just replacing the motor. The changes in car design as well as the impact on suppliers will be immense. Rising energy prices in the medium and long term, the urgency to combat climate change and behavioral changes are the most important factors driving this transition.

The world’s urban population now exceeds the number of those living in rural areas. Urban sprawl made the automobile the major mean of transportation in the U.S., the spread of mega-cities all around the world and the development that more and more people are consuming and producing like Americans show the necessity for alternative personal mobility concepts.

Undoubtedly, the future belongs to electrically-powered mobility. In the short term, hybrids and semi-electric cars with range extender such as the Chevrolet Volt will prevail. Hybrid cars like the Toytoa Prius maybe very efficient in city traffic with lots of braking, stop-and-go, but when driving long distances and when going fast, their performance is less impressive as regards fuel economy. Therefore, hybrid cabs (NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg planned to make all NYC taxis hybrids by 2012 by requiring that all new taxis must be hybrids. Since all cabs must be replaced every three years, New York’s taxi fleet would have been replaced by hybrids by 2012 if courts hadn’t stopped the law.) and hybrid public buses are the hit.

Electric cars with range extender are perfectly suitable for those commuting back and forth to work 20 miles every day. While most daily distances can be covered fully electric, range extended EVs are also fine for the occasional road trip because a small combustion engine (which is not connected to the wheels!) can kick in when necessary and recharge the battery. The Chevrolet Volt for example has an electric range of 40 miles which can be extended to 640 miles on a single tank of fuel.

The range extender helps to bridge the time until the driving range of battery electrics is competitive. Given that battery technology is improving quickly (The Battery Breakthrough) because producing large high-capacity batteries is about to become an extremely profitable business, the driving range of electric cars is constantly growing. Moreover, batteries can be replaced with new ones whenever the technology makes significant advances. Possibly, batteries could be leased to drivers so that they’d always have the batteries with the highest storage capacity in their EVs.

As soon as electric cars can amortize their high purchase price quickly due to low operating costs, demand will kick off. 

Besides, governments are very likely to offer tax cuts and create other incentives to make EVs more attractive. With most CO2 emissions stemming from the transportation sector, incentives for electric cars are legitimate given that they have no tailpipe emissions. Next to tax exemptions for electric vehicles, they could be allowed into city centers while gas-guzzlers should be banned. In several places similar measures are already in place. The byproduct is less traffic congestion and better air quality.

Until recently, efficiency gains were offset because cars have become bigger, heavier and faster. Quite in contrast, future cars will be lighter and smaller than today’s. Auto manufacturers will mostly be able to pass on the increased costs for lightweight materials to consumers since the better fuel economy helps drivers save money at the gas pump and the resale value of next-generation cars will be much higher.

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This entry was posted on Saturday, March 14th, 2009 at 7:42 PM and is filed under Electric Cars & Auto Industry. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.