Disputed Waters in the South China Sea
In July 2009 I was participating in a conference in Washington D.C. and New York City where I discussed a hypothetical crisis in the South China Sea with students from more than 100+ countries. The scenario we were discussing was an armed conflict between China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines in the Spratly Islands in 2012.
Today I stumbled upon this article on CNN.com and it immediately caught my attention. The Spratly Islands, uninhabited and located between several Southeast Asian nations, is a group of islands in the South China Sea where geologists expect to find the largest oil reserves outside of Saudi Arabia. The problem that stems from that is the potential for conflict the discovery of oil would bear.
Alan Dupont, director at the Center for International Security Studies at the University of Sydney says, “We just came out of probably the most peaceful 25 years Asia has ever seen.”
China, chronically scarce of energy, is becoming more assertive in claiming exploitation rights for potential oil reserves, while the immediate neighbors of the islands, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines, are also claiming parts of the islands.
The tense situation is about to change the dynamics of geopolitics significantly. China has tried hard over the past decade to establish and maintain good relationships with its Asian neighbors. Successfully, China was able to expand its influence over the region, while the U.S. had difficulties maintaining its naval hegemony. Now, smaller Southeast Asian nations seem to unite to counteract China’s influence in the disputed regions, which has benefits for the United States’ strategic relationships with countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines.
China is facing the tough choice between the country’s economic and political interests. On the one hand, access to energy reserves is a key priority of the government, while on the other hand, the Chinese try to avoid the “bad guy” image they are risking to get if they aggressively pursue their interests in the region and the prospect of a stronger U.S. presence in the South China Sea (CNN).
It will be interesting to see how the Spratly Islands issue develops over the coming years. From a peaceful, mutually respectful solution to a Cold War-style conflict between the regional powers, anything seems to be possible at this point. However, one thing stands out to me. If the assumptions that the area around the Spratlys holds significant oil reserves turned out to be false, the region and the environment would be saved from a lot of trouble.
